Modeling the Spread of West Nile Virus

Pauline van den Driessche
Mathematics and Statistics, University of Victoria

(March 21, 2006 4:30 PM - 5:30 PM)

Modeling the Spread of West Nile Virus

Abstract

Since 1999, West Nile virus has spread spatially from the East to the West coast of North America. A partial differential equation model for this spatial spread is developed and analyzed. The model has cross infection between mosquitoes and birds, with diffusion terms describing their movement. Using a simplified version of the model, the cooperative nature of the cross-infection dynamics is used to prove the existence of traveling waves and to give an expression for the spatial spread of infection. A comparison theorem is used to show that this spread rate may provide an upper bound for the spread rate of the more realistic model.