Bayesian analysis of a cafeine treatment for neonates
Eric Parent (Agricultural and Environmental Engineering, French Institute of Forestry)
(April 28, 2006 4:30 PM - 5:30 PM)
Neonates are more subject to the Sudden Death Infant syndrom than other babies, mainly because their nervous organisation is not fully achieved when they come to life. In Amiens hospital, pedriatricians started a new protocol (30 babies treated up to now) : they gave them caffeine, so as to augment their hearth activity and they bet this treatment would keep the babies in better conditions not to forget to breathe. Of course, on the other hand, overdose of caffeine may threaten the babies'lives due to possible tachycardia events. Unfortunately, it is not technically feasable to monitor online caffeine concentration within a neonate's blood and a protocol to keep caffeine concentration within therapeutic bounds has to be designed and adapted to each baby. Sandrine Micallef and Billy Amzal, two PhD students of mine have been working on a Bayesian analysis of such a cafeine treatment for neonates. I will first describe a population model that has been set up to describe the cafeine elimination within the body of baby. We have designed a nonstationary compartment model that takes into account the rapid growth rate of babies during their first weeks. Second, I will focus onto the design of the caffeine protocol that has to be optimized under uncertainty and how it can be updated when a new case enters the study.