Within-host to population-level modeling of mycoplasmal conjunctivitis in wild birds

Paul Hurtado (April 8, 2014)

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Slides

0:05 Within-host to population-level modeling of mycoplasmal conjunctivitis in wild birds.
0:34 Acknowledgments
0:59 Background
2:07 Spatial Spread (Project Feederwatch)
2:22 Symptoms Data
3:02 Observed Virulence Dymamics
4:35 Sources of Variation?
5:51 Objectives
6:12 Objectives 2
6:40 Model
7:12 Separation of Time Scales
7:22 Initial Pathogen Dynamics (FAST!)
7:32 Initial Pathogen Dynamics (FAST!) 2
7:46 Initial Pathogen Dynamics (FAST!) 3
8:01 Fast Time Scale?
8:03 Approximate p-n (Fast) Subsystem
8:25 Approximate p-n (Fast) Subsystem 2
8:31 Simplified Non-specific Immune Response
8:39 Slow Time Scale?
8:40 Specific Immune Control
8:57 Specific Immune Control 2
9:04 Slow Time Scale Dynamics
9:29 Persistence vs. Clearance
10:10 Individual Variation, Parameter Variation
10:53 So what have we learned?
11:01 Summary #1 (1)
11:02 Summary #1 (2)
11:08 Summary #1 (3)
11:11 Summary #1 (4)
12:35 Parameter Variation
12:48 What drives virulence evolution? (1)
13:09 What drives virulence evolution? (3)
13:47 What drives virulence evolution? (3)
14:06 Emergent Transmission-Virulence Trade-off? (1)
15:23 Emergent Transmission-Virulence Trade-off? (2)
15:34 Emergent Transmission-Virulence Trade-off? (3)
15:43 Fitness Definitions (1)
15:44 Fitness Definitions (2)
15:45 Fitness Definitions (3)
16:27 Transmission-Virulence Trade-off
17:29 Observed Virulence Evolution
17:52 Movement-Virulence Trade-off Effects?
18:52 Trade-off Curves (1)
18:54 Trade-off Curves (2)
18:57 Mean Virulence Dynamics: Epicenter vs. Wavefront
20:04 Model Approximation: Wavefront (1)
20:05 Model Approximation: Wavefront (2)
20:09 Model Approximation: Wavefront (3)
21:22 Selection: Max. Wave Speed (c) vs Fitness (r)
21:47 Simulation Example (1)
22:14 Simulation Example (2)
22:19 Price Equation Reformulation (1)
22:20 Price Equation Reformulation (2)
22:57 Price Equation Reformulation (3)
24:04 Price Equation Results
24:57 Data vs Model
25:00 Summary: Movement-Virulence Trade-off
26:06 Parting thoughts on “scaling-up�
26:08 Parting thoughts on “scaling-up� (2)
26:10 Parting thoughts on “scaling-up� (3)
29:22 The End

Abstract

The pathogenic bacterium Mycoplasma gallisepticum jumped from poultry into North American House Finch populations during the early 1990s, and has since proven to be an accessible system in which to study the many faces of emerging infectious diseases in vertebrates. In this talk I'll begin by introducing the system, then I'll discuss some sources of individual-level variation in this system (and likely many others) including some results obtained by "scaling up" from the individual level. Then, I'll discuss the use of models to address questions at the population level including evolutionary dynamics and the importance of a novel virulence trade-off present in this system which is likely a factor driving evolutionary dynamics of other parasites with mobile host species.