Flu in ducks and water - a multiscale modeling study

Andreas Handel (April 10, 2014)

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Slides

0:01 Flu in ducks and water - a multiscale modeling study
0:21 A story in 2 acts (so far)
0:25 Background
1:11 Background (continued)
2:12 A story in 2 acts (so far)
2:17 Temperature-dependent virus decay I
3:14 Temperature-dependant virus decay I continued
3:42 Temperature-dependant virus decay I continued
4:24 A story in 2 acts
4:31 Trade-off between scales I
4:54 Trade-off between scales I continued
5:17 The between-host model
6:33 The within-host model
7:14 Measuring fitness
7:35 Direct transmission fitness
8:17 Link function choices
9:16 Indirect transmission fitness
9:41 Relative Fitness
10:36 (Major) Assumptions
11:39 (Major) Assumptions continued
12:33 Putting it all together
12:59 Trade-off between scales I -Results
14:24 Trade-off between scales I -Results continued
15:30 A story in 3 acts (so far)
15:35 Temperature-dependent virus decay II
16:12 Temperature-dependent virus decay II continued
16:35 Temperature-dependent virus decay I & II
17:52 A story in 2 acts (so far)
18:00 Trade-off between scales II
18:28 Trade-off between scales II - Results
19:23 Trade-off between scales II - Results continued
19:47 Summary
20:21 Some further thoughts
23:01 Acknowledgements

Abstract

It has recently been suggested that for avian influenza viruses, prolonged persistence in the environment plays an important role in the transmission between birds. In such situations, influenza virus strains may face a trade-off: They need to persist well in the environment at low temperatures, but they also need to do well inside an infected bird at higher temperatures. Here, we report an analysis of fitness for avian influenza A viruses across scales, focusing on the phenotype of viral persistence. Taking advantage of a unique dataset that not only reports environmental virus persistence, but also strain-specific viral kinetics from duck challenge experiments, we show that the environmental persistence phenotype of a strain does not impact within-host infection dynamics and virus load. We thereby establish that for this phenotype, the scales of within-host infection dynamics and between-host environmental persistence do not interact: the virus can optimize fitness on each scale without cross-scale trade-offs. Instead, we confirm the existence of a temperature-dependent persistence trade-off on a single scale, with some strains optimizing environmental persistence in water at low temperatures while others reduce sensitivity to increasing temperatures.